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A股長期低迷的關鍵原因,在于投資沒有安全感!

來源: 南方日報網絡版     時間: 2019年08月26日 03:35:39
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(原)(標)(題)(:A股)(長)(期)(低)(迷)(的)(關)(鍵)(原)(因)(,在)(于)(投)(資)(沒)(有)(安)(全)(感)(!
一)(般)(而)(言)(,股)(票)(市)(場)(是)(經)(濟)(的)(晴)(雨)(表)(,往)(往)(提)(前)(反)(映)(出)(當)(下)(經)(濟)(的)(基)(本)(面)(狀)(況)(。然)(而)(,縱)(觀)(多)(年)(來)(的)(中)(國)(股)(票)(市)(場)(,似)(乎)(并)(未)(與)(同)(期)(的)(經)(濟)(基)(本)(面)(呈)(現)(出)(同)(步)(運)(行)(的)(態)(勢)(,而)(股)(市)(大)(漲)(大)(落)(,市)(場)(長)(期)(處)(于)(牛)(短)(熊)(長)(的)(運)(行)(格)(局)(,卻)(從)(更)(大)(程)(度)(上)(沖)(擊)(著)(投)(資)(者)(的)(投)(資)(信)(心)(。
如)(果)(非)(經)(濟)(基)(本)(面)(發)(生)(實)(質)(性)(的)(問)(題)(,或)(企)(業)(盈)(利)(狀)(況)(發)(生)(了)(持)(續)(惡)(化)(的)(跡)(象)(,作)(為)(晴)(雨)(表)(的)(股)(票)(市)(場)(,本)(來)(并)(不)(應)(該)(有)(著)(如)(此)(糟)(糕)(的)(表)(現)(。然)(而)(,縱)(觀)(過)(去)(18年)(的)(時)(間)(,雖)(然)(中)(國)(股)(市)(的)(世)(界)(影)(響)(力)(在)(不)(斷)(抬)(升)(,但)(18年)(來)(,股)(市)(走)(熊)(的)(時)(間)(卻)(長)(達)(三)(分)(之)(二)(以)(上)(,這)(已)(然)(與)(持)(續)(向)(好)(的)(經)(濟)(基)(本)(面)(有)(著)(背)(離)(的)(表)(現)(。
不)(過)(,對)(于)(中)(國)(股)(市)(而)(言)(,長)(期)(走)(熊)(也)(并)(非)(沒)(有)(原)(因)(。實)(際)(上)(,影)(響)(股)(票)(市)(場)(走)(向)(的)(,除)(了)(經)(濟)(基)(本)(面)(、企)(業)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(等)(因)(素)(外)(,仍)(與)(股)(市)(內)(部)(管)(理)(、機)(構)(化)(程)(度)(、民)(間)(資)(金)(去)(向)(、外)(部)(市)(場)(環)(境)(等)(因)(素)(有)(著)(密)(不)(可)(分)(的)(聯)(系)(性)(。
以)(近)(期)(的)(股)(市)(非)(理)(性)(下)(跌)(走)(勢)(為)(例)(,雖)(然)(A股)(上)(市)(公)(司)(整)(體)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(在)(不)(斷)(增)(強)(,且)(隨)(著)(市)(場)(指)(數)(的)(不)(斷)(下)(跌)(,股)(票)(市)(場)(平)(均)(估)(值)(也)(得)(到)(了)(較)(快)(地)(壓)(縮)(,但)(這)(似)(乎)(并)(未)(阻)(礙)(股)(票)(市)(場)(持)(續)(下)(跌)(,乃)(至)(創)(出)(階)(段)(性)(新)(低)(的)(運)(行)(格)(局)(。歸)(根)(到)(底)(,主)(要)(還)(是)(體)(現)(在)(股)(市)(內)(部)(管)(理)(問)(題)(上)(,如)(熊)(市)(環)(境)(下)(延)(續)(高)(速)(IPO發)(行)(節)(奏)(、股)(權)(質)(押)(平)(倉)(壓)(力)(集)(中)(釋)(放)(以)(及)(金)(融)(市)(場)(去)(杠)(桿)(動)(作)(的)(延)(續)(等)(。
站)(在)(當)(下)(的)(股)(票)(市)(場)(運)(行)(狀)(況)(分)(析)(,滬)(深)(主)(板)(市)(場)(的)(平)(均)(估)(值)(已)(經)(壓)(低)(至)(近)(年)(來)(的)(新)(低)(水)(平)(,但)(這)(似)(乎)(未)(有)(有)(效)(止)(跌)(的)(跡)(象)(,而)(股)(市)(跌)(破)(3000點)(整)(數)(關)(口)(,更)(是)(加)(快)(了)(股)(權)(質)(押)(平)(倉)(風)(險)(的)(集)(中)(釋)(放)(。與)(此)(同)(時)(,從)(金)(融)(市)(場)(去)(杠)(桿)(的)(進)(程)(來)(看)(,雖)(然)(資)(金)(端)(去)(杠)(桿)(已)(逐)(漸)(步)(入)(尾)(聲)(,但)(金)(融)(市)(場)(去)(杠)(桿)(工)(作)(卻)(逐)(漸)(延)(伸)(至)(其)(余)(的)(領)(域)(,由)(此)(造)(成)(了)(金)(融)(市)(場)(的)(局)(部)(性)(恐)(慌)(效)(應)(。
本)(來)(,站)(在)(防)(風)(險)(、守)(底)(線)(的)(角)(度)(思)(考)(,時)(下)(金)(融)(市)(場)(最)(關)(鍵)(的)(任)(務)(,應)(該)(是)(保)(持)(市)(場)(的)(持)(續)(穩)(定)(。在)(熊)(市)(非)(理)(性)(調)(整)(的)(行)(情)(下)(,理)(應)(打)(破)(IPO發)(行)(常)(態)(化)(的)(現)(象)(,而)(考)(慮)(到)(市)(值)(配)(售)(鎖)(定)(大)(量)(打)(新)(資)(金)(的)(因)(素)(,可)(以)(把)(一)(周)(一)(批)(次)(IPO調)(整)(為)(一)(個)(月)(一)(批)(次)(的)(節)(奏)(,以)(保)(障)(市)(場)(的)(持)(續)(穩)(定)(。至)(于)(股)(權)(質)(押)(平)(倉)(問)(題)(,往)(往)(更)(需)(要)(做)(好)(提)(前)(的)(風)(險)(防)(范)(工)(作)(,而)(不)(是)(等)(到)(市)(場)(危)(機)(爆)(發)(,再)(行)(考)(慮)(解)(決)(問)(題)(。由)(此)(可)(見)(,對)(于)(股)(票)(市)(場)(的)(管)(理)(秩)(序)(以)(及)(出)(牌)(程)(序)(,似)(乎)(有)(所)(偏)(妥)(,而)(對)(于)(此)(次)(股)(市)(非)(理)(性)(下)(跌)(走)(勢)(,若)(不)(屬)(于)(外)(部)(因)(素)(影)(響)(,也)(不)(屬)(于)(國)(內)(經)(濟)(基)(本)(面)(的)(問)(題)(,那)(么)(就)(是)(內)(部)(管)(理)(的)(問)(題)(了)(,而)(更)(多)(還)(是)(體)(現)(在)(人)(為)(的)(因)(素)(。
回)(想)(2015年)(下)(半)(年)(轟)(轟)(烈)(烈)(的)(去)(杠)(桿)(化)(、去)(泡)(沫)(化)(過)(程)(,對)(股)(票)(市)(場)(的)(沖)(擊)(影)(響)(非)(常)(明)(顯)(。然)(而)(,對)(于)(投)(資)(者)(而)(言)(,最)(難)(想)(象)(到)(當)(時)(監)(管)(收)(緊)(的)(速)(度)(如)(此)(之)(快)(,而)(對)(于)(高)(杠)(桿)(工)(具)(而)(言)(,當)(時)(基)(本)(上)(用)(非)(常)(猛)(烈)(的)(動)(作)(來)(完)(成)(系)(列)(去)(杠)(桿)(化)(的)(舉)(措)(,并)(由)(此)(加)(劇)(了)(股)(票)(市)(場)(的)(波)(動)(風)(險)(。
至)(于)(2016年)(年)(初)(的)(熔)(斷)(機)(制)(匆)(匆)(落)(幕)(事)(件)(,更)(是)(體)(現)(出)(金)(融)(監)(管)(與)(政)(策)(出)(爐)(,并)(未)(充)(分)(衡)(量)(當)(時)(市)(場)(的)(實)(際)(承)(受)(能)(力)(,而)(在)(未)(有)(充)(分)(測)(試)(以)(及)(考)(究)(之)(前)(,卻)(匆)(匆)(推)(出)(中)(國)(式)(熔)(斷)(機)(制)(,由)(此)(導)(致)(熔)(斷)(機)(制)(模)(式)(的)(水)(土)(不)(服)(,加)(劇)(了)(股)(票)(市)(場)(的)(波)(動)(風)(險)(。
時)(隔)(多)(年)(,對)(于)(中)(國)(股)(市)(的)(內)(部)(管)(理)(、政)(策)(出)(爐)(,依)(舊)(存)(在)(著)(不)(少)(的)(問)(題)(,而)(內)(部)(管)(理)(的)(不)(確)(定)(性)(,卻)(或)(多)(或)(少)(讓)(投)(資)(者)(感)(受)(到)(投)(資)(缺)(乏)(了)(安)(全)(感)(。因)(為)(,站)(在)(投)(資)(者)(的)(角)(度)(思)(考)(,在)(信)(息)(不)(對)(稱)(、政)(策)(出)(爐)(缺)(乏)(嚴)(謹)(性)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,幾)(乎)(不)(知)(道)(市)(場)(下)(一)(步)(會)(發)(生)(什)(么)(事)(情)(,而)(在)(當)(下)(“防)(風)(險)(、守)(底)(線)(”的)(政)(策)(定)(調)(環)(境)(下)(,上)(市)(公)(司)(“無)(股)(不)(押)(”的)(風)(險)(卻)(逐)(漸)(暴)(露)(,而)(接)(連)(不)(斷)(的)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(桿)(舉)(措)(,卻)(不)(斷)(加)(劇)(了)(股)(票)(市)(場)(的)(不)(確)(定)(性)(因)(素)(。
“民)(間)(資)(金)(多)(,投)(資)(渠)(道)(少)(”,這)(是)(近)(年)(來)(國)(內)(市)(場)(的)(真)(實)(寫)(照)(。面)(對)(近)(年)(來)(居)(民)(財)(富)(的)(大)(幅)(增)(長)(以)(及)(國)(內)(經)(濟)(的)(快)(速)(發)(展)(,本)(來)(應)(該)(更)(好)(體)(現)(在)(股)(票)(市)(場)(身)(上)(,而)(從)(近)(年)(來)(房)(地)(產)(市)(場)(持)(續)(火)(熱)(,而)(股)(票)(市)(場)(持)(續)(低)(迷)(的)(發)(展)(狀)(況)(分)(析)(,實)(際)(上)(也)(說)(明)(了)(資)(本)(逐)(利)(性)(很)(強)(,而)(作)(為)(財)(富)(資)(金)(聚)(集)(的)(重)(要)(投)(資)(渠)(道)(,股)(票)(市)(場)(的)(吸)(金)(效)(應)(反)(而)(并)(不)(明)(顯)(,關)(鍵)(還)(是)(在)(于)(投)(資)(者)(對)(股)(市)(長)(期)(重)(融)(資)(的)(定)(位)(模)(式)(產)(生)(厭)(倦)(,而)(中)(國)(股)(票)(市)(場)(已)(然)(成)(為)(了)(各)(類)(資)(本)(、各)(類)(企)(業)(套)(利)(的)(渠)(道)(,而)(這)(無)(疑)(加)(劇)(了)(股)(市)(財)(富)(資)(金)(再)(度)(分)(配)(的)(不)(合)(理)(性)(。歸)(根)(到)(底)(,這)(系)(列)(現)(象)(的)(背)(后)(,還)(是)(反)(映)(出)(投)(資)(者)(以)(及)(投)(資)(資)(金)(在)(中)(國)(股)(票)(市)(場)(中)(已)(經)(缺)(乏)(了)(投)(資)(安)(全)(感)(,而)(在)(缺)(乏)(投)(資)(安)(全)(感)(的)(背)(景)(環)(境)(下)(,資)(金)(幾)(乎)(不)(敢)(輕)(易)(大)(舉)(進)(場)(,這)(也)(是)(這)(些)(年)(來)(中)(國)(股)(市)(的)(真)(實)(寫)(照)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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